Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2417 · LAS → SJC
departs 6:48 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 21%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.