WN 4950 · MCO → MIA

departs 9:56 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET

Your aircraft is N7745A (B737), coming in as WN 3517 from PIT: landed 9:21 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MCO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4950 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?