Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4950
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4950 · MCO → MIA
departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 29%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.