Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5768 · DCA → LGA
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.