Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

SAT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?