Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

departs 7:38 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?