Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?