Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?