Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?