Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1610 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1610 · MIA → MCO

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

MCO (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1610 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?