Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1610 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1610 · MIA → MCO

departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1610 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?