Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1869 · MIA → GYE

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM -05

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GYE?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE

↓ Arrivals into GYE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

GYE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1869 · MIA → GYE

Odds over time

How late will it get to GYE?