Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2393 · MIA → BGI

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM AST

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BGI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGI?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into BGI at that hour are usually not late

↓ BGI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

BGI (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2393 · MIA → BGI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGI?