Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2393 · MIA → BGI

departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM AST

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at BGI more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGI?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into BGI at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

BGI (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2393 · MIA → BGI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGI?