AA 257 · MIA → MEX

departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM CST

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Arrivals into MEX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 257 · MIA → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?