AA 2831 · CLT → ILM

departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2831 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?