Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2831 · CLT → ILM

departs 6:36 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2831 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?