Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 929 · MIA → GRU

departs 8:56 PM ET · arrives 6:09 AM -03

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRU?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRU

↓ Arrivals into GRU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

GRU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 929 · MIA → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?