Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 929 · MIA → GRU

departs 9:12 PM ET · arrives 7:38 AM -03

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRU?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRU

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.64 in

GRU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 929 · MIA → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?