Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 2809 · MSP → SFO
departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 39%
Thu 11/5 53%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±10 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.