Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2809 · MSP → SFO
departs 6:27 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 39%
Thu 11/5 53%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.