Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 2866 · EWR → MSP
departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 8:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.