Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2866 · EWR → MSP
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.