Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1469 · DAL → SAN
departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 3:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.