Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4305
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4305 · MDW → DCA
departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 9:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 31%
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.