Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4305
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4305 · MDW → DCA
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 11:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.