Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4488 · AUS → HOU
departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.