Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1163 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

departs 7:38 PM CT · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?