Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1163 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

departs 7:38 PM CT · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?