Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1551 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

departs 10:28 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.56 in

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?