Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1551 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

departs 10:28 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.73 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?