Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2427 · MIA → PHX

departs 9:56 PM ET · arrives 12:51 AM MT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±8 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.56 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2427 · MIA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?