Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 3174 · MIA → MCO

departs 10:43 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

MCO (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3174 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?