Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 460 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 460 · DFW → CLT

departs 8:28 PM CT · arrives 12:02 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±8 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 460 · DFW → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?