Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2297
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2297 · MSP → PHX
departs 6:27 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.