Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2961 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 2961 · MSP → DCA

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ DL's recent on-time record

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2961 · MSP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?