Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4779 · BNA → MIA
departs 7:47 PM CT · arrives 11:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.