AA 3104 · MIA → CLT

departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 4:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip1.47 in

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3104 · MIA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?