AA 315 · MIA → PTY

took off 12:12 PM ET · landed 2:40 PM EST (scheduled 10:54 AM ET → 1:56 PM EST)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PTY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 315 · MIA → PTY

Odds over time

How late did it get to PTY?