AA 315 · MIA → PTY

departs 10:58 AM ET · arrives 2:01 PM EST

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 315 · MIA → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?