Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
DL 2954 · MSP → BZN
departs 10:23 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 14%
Thu 11/5 20%
Fri 11/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 0.766667 mi forecast at BZN that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.95 in
BZN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 0.766667 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.