Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 419 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

DL 419 · SEA → HNL

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 8:41 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 419 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?