MQ 3855 · DCA → MSP

departs 9:28 PM ET · arrives 11:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3855 · DCA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?