MQ 3991 · CLE → DCA

took off 1:08 PM ET · expected to land 2:07 PM ET (scheduled 12:39 PM ET → 2:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from CLE are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3991 · CLE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?