MQ 3991 · CLE → DCA

departs 12:41 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from CLE are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,233 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3991 · CLE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?