Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4934 · BNA → MSP
departs 10:28 PM CT · arrives 12:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 31%
Fri 11/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.98 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.