YX 4407 · RSW → DCA

took off 3:03 PM ET · expected to land 5:09 PM ET (scheduled 2:05 PM ET → 4:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

94% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
51%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ 2pm departures from RSW are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.41 in

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4407 · RSW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?