YX 4407 · RSW → DCA

departs 2:07 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft forecast at RSW that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4407 · RSW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?