YX 4732 · DCA → ECP

took off 11:51 AM ET · expected to land 12:35 PM CT (scheduled 11:22 AM ET → 12:54 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ECP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4732 · DCA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?