YX 4732 · DCA → ECP

departs 11:24 AM ET · arrives 12:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4732 · DCA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?